Inflation in Egypt: continuing to rise in February 2024

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt rose to 35.7% in February 2024, compared to 29.8% in January 2024. This increase is due to higher prices of basic food and non-food items, which outweighs the previous positive base effect. As a result, annual food price inflation, which had been slowing for four months, jumped to 50.9% in February from 47.9% in January. Likewise, annual non-food inflation rose to 26.1% from 19.6%.

After seven months of decline, the annual core inflation rate rose to 35.1% in February, a significant rise from 29.0% in January. This rise reflects widespread price increases, including the prices of basic foodstuffs, services and retail goods. Monthly core inflation hit a record high of 13.2% in February, exceeding the rate of 8.1% from the previous year.

The headline monthly inflation in urban areas in February recorded a historic high of 11.4%, compared to 6.5% a year earlier, marking the first case in which monthly inflation exceeded 10%. February 2024 pressures confirm expectations of a rise in the inflation rate and the impact of foreign exchange market fluctuations. These factors highlight the importance of the actions taken by the Monetary Policy Committee on March 6, 2024.

Price increases were affected by both seasonal elements, such as the impact of Ramadan on food prices and the rescheduling of educational expenditures from October 2023 to February 2024 by Central Agency statistics. For public mobilization, and other factors. Seasonal factors such as tobacco, medical products, household items, and rent. The annual inflation rate in rural areas also rose to 36.3% in February from 32.5% in January, while the annual inflation rate nationwide rose to 36.0% from 31.2%.

Specific price changes included: Poultry and red meat: Their percentages increased by 32.6% and 19.6%, respectively, to contribute 2.97% to the monthly inflation rate. Dairy products: A record rise of 11.4% adds 0.53% to inflation. Oils and fats: increased by 20.2%, contributing 0.66%. Pasta and rice market: rose 30.7% and 10.6% respectively, up 0.50%. Fish and seafood: increased by 13.0%, contributing 0.38%. Other basic food items (eggs, legumes, sugar, tea, coffee, etc.): contributed 1.42%.

Services: Increased by 6.7%, up by 1.88%, mainly due to delayed school costs and higher spending on food and housing. Retail goods: rose 10.7%, contributing 1.39%, driven by higher costs of educational materials, medical equipment, personal and household care products, and clothing. Regulated items: Prices rose 6.1%, contributing 1.24% to monthly headline inflation. The main factors were high costs of tobacco, public education fees, water services and medical products. Fresh produce: Fresh fruit and vegetable prices rose 5.8% and 6.4% respectively, which together added 0.39% to the monthly headline inflation rate.

It is affected by the basic CPI items mentioned above. Basic foodstuffs had a significant impact, contributing 8.80%. Services followed with a contribution of 2.56%, while retail goods added 1.89% to monthly core inflation.

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