Monday evening UK news briefing: How National Insurance hike could prompt backlash at next election

Also from this evening’s Front Page newsletter: Covid vaccines for healthy 12 to 15-year-olds not recommended. Sign up below Afghanistan crisis | Boris Johnson has been told to order a “complete overhaul of Whitehall” so that Britain can fill the void of global leadership left by the US. As Parliament returned today, Tobias Ellwood, the chairman of the defence select committee, said the withdrawal from Afghanistan raised the prospect that terrorism would “once again be allowed to thrive and the limits of UK and western influence exposed”. Read more on Mr Johnson’s defence of the handling of the Afghan crisis.

The political danger for the Government in raising taxes to pay for social care does not appear to be immediate. A summer poll by Ipsos-Mori found two thirds of the public support the idea of a 1 per cent National Insurance rise to pay for social care reform and a new YouGov poll has found the same thing.

What is there to worry about, then, should the Government announce tomorrow, as expected, that it will hike National Insurance by 1p or 1.25p to pay for its plan to reform social care – which is likely to include a cap on what people will pay, with the Government picking up the bill after this point? According to James Frayne, the backlash will indeed come – just not until the next election.

Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak face opposition to proposals to increase National Insurance to pay for social care Meanwhile, small business lobbyists are seeking to foment a mass rebellion against Boris Johnson’s plans by writing to every MP. The Federation of Small Businesses is warning backbenchers that increasing National Insurance risks doing serious damage to job growth and the economy, just as Britain emerges from the Covid crisis. The brave – and right – thing for ministers to do, says Ross Clark, would be to abolish NI altogether. Read why it would make much tax avoidance redundant.

Time for Labour plan The unveiling of the plan to fix Britain’s social care problems is – or has the potential to be – a transformative moment for public policy. For decades there has been a demand for consensus on the issue of end of life care. Of course, Mr Johnson promised the imminent arrival of a ready-made plan to reform social care when he stood on the steps of Downing Street more than two years ago.

So far all we have seen of the detail is an internal Tory Party squabble about National insurance rises and potential manifesto betrayals. Tom Harris sets out why now would be a good time for Sir Keir Starmer to lay out his own plan for social care. They accepted that, while the move would break a Tory manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, NI or VAT, times had changed since the pandemic. Yet critics have a list of concerns.

We want to know what you would change about the system to make it fairer – and give people a dignified retirement. Emails us your thoughts here for the chance to be included in tomorrow evening’s Front Page.

Maria Kalesnikava, the Belarusian opposition leader who famously tore up her passport last year in order to avoid a forced expulsion, has been sentenced to 11 years in prison, in another sign of the severe crackdown by dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Another leading opposition figure, lawyer Maxim Znak, was also sentenced to 10 years. Both were charged with conspiracy to seize power, leading an extremist organisation and calling for actions to harm national security. See how Ms Kalesnikava appeared cheerful in court despite spending almost a year behind bars.

There was no fairytale for England but instead the numbing reality of a dismal batting performance and the sight of India tricolours waved proudly by their team’s jubilant supporters.  India bowled England out for 210, winning the Test by a comprehensive 157 runs shortly after tea with Jasprit Bumrah’s pace and energy blowing them away. India are 2-1 up in the series with one match to play at Emirates Old Trafford on Friday and England face the prospect of losing two series in the same summer for the first time since 1986. Read Nick Hoult’s match report.

The Government’s hopes of agreeing a Brexit trade deal with New Zealand by the end of August failed to materialise as negotiators are still locking horns on key areas such as “digital, financial services and mobility”.

The Department for International Trade had said in June that an agreement in principle could be reached before September. Read what areas are proving a snag, according to a Whitehall source. Meanwhile, Michael O’Leary, the boss of Ryanair, has hinted that Europe’s biggest airline may dump Boeing in favour of Airbus after talks with the US plane maker over a new order of jets fell apart.

‘It’s not hype, it’s real’ | Emma Raducanu’s heroic displays in New York have left British tennis in a state of delighted disbelief. By reaching the last 16 of both her first two majors, the 18-year-old has achieved a feat not seen on the women’s tour since Jennifer Capriati – perhaps the most touted teenager in the history of the game – in 1990. As Raducanu prepares for her fourth-round match against American world No 43 Shelby Rogers, there are even a few whispers asking whether she could be a contender to win the US Open.

Read why the great Martina Navratilova is backing her and follow tonight’s match here. Back to school | The start of a new school year is a time when the distinction between excitement and anxiety is easily blurred. This year, however, after 18 months when almost no one escaped home-schooling, anxiety predominates. Read six ways to help your child have a stress-free return to school while Sarah Rodrigues reveals what she learned from six years of dreaded school drop offs.

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